PSM 09.30.13

Philippine Stock Market Updates

September 30, 2013

Trend: Sideways
Phase: Broken Support
Monthend Window Dressing mode
PSEI 6,400 and 6,200 Support break
US budget battle and debt ceiling debate issues
SMC to sell MER shares to JGS

Good Day

Despite the monthend window dressing, Philippine market went down hard today due to continued worried on US Budget and debt ceiling debate issues leading to 2 of our index’s support line to break.

with PSEI 6,400 and 6,200 strong support lines broken where could our market lead to?

at anyrate, lets just hope that things may get better tomorrow, else it might send our market back to the downtrend

on corporate news

MER holders rejoices as SMC sell their share at 270 to JGS Holdings.

Usually price of the company to be acquired pushes higher to the buying price while the acquirer goes down before the acquisition happens and then reverses afterwards

PGOLD is planning to open 25 stores in the next 5 years
most of which are under their expansion program in Mindanao.


PSM 09.24.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates

September 24, 2013

Trend: Consolidation preparing for rally
Phase: Consolidation after last week’s Hype
Mode: Preparation for month end window dressing

PSEI is seen to consolidate in the 6,400-6,600 range this week with most analyst peg 6,400 as a strong support leaving traces of downtrend in the dust.

As strong the support it is, a fall below this support line (which would be less likely to happen) would send the market back on the extended C wave trend

Anyhow market just celebrated the FED’s stand regarding the QE exit (FED Tapering) which led to hype last week and in turn makes the lack of action this week. (dagdag mo pa ung force closing last friday)

Usually after a hype, market goes down to correct its trend, but this week, we may see the market simply range trading as a lot of market participants will see this opportunity to take some profits

Market is still net foreign buying ever since the fed announced its stand, so with both of factors it gives opportunity for new entrants to get in the market and position their portfolio

Month end window dressing would be short next week as we only have monday as the actual play day for window dressing since the last few days for the month would fall on weekends

it is recommended to fill up your position this week for the window dressing plays for next week

PSM 09.19.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates
Trend: Consildatio to uptrend
Phase: Possible change from downtrend to uptrend
Mode: FED tapering is gonna wait hype

The Market shouts BUY, BUY, BUY
As FED wait for more evidences of solid economic growth

Expect Market to go fly today with high chances of breaking the heavy resistance level which also breaks the down trend that currently loom our market

SM Group is rumored to acquire another bank

which one is it kaya? Is it really merger with LTG’s PNB?

Meanwhile China bank acquired Planters Bank for undisclosed amount

For clarification regarding the SM rumor, it is Chinabank acquiring Planters Bank



PSM 09.16.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates
Trend: Sideways
Phase: Consolidation

Waiting for FED Tapering announcement
PSEI reindexing
(BEL and MER to be replaced by LTG and GTCAP

Market may be seen trading low or consolidating in its range as investors are waiting for the outcome of the FED Tapering this week

It seems that we will have some light trades as most traders and investors are on a waiting mode

either wait to buy or to sell

Althou Philippine fundamentals are really good
it would be high likely that we will be dragged by other emerging markets as we are seen just as one basket

on the other hand
there are still a lot of issues (Zamboanga Seige, Pork barrel scam) for the Philippines to face which hinder its continues growth and stops the momentum that might be forming due to it giving doubts on the Philippine governance which is very vital to investors

Just be reminded that there will be a buying pressure for stocks that would be included in the index market and a selling pressure on those which would be remove, the pressure mostly be due to more cash inflow for those that would be added as Funds who could not trade them due to limitations may now trade them as they are already in the index

at any rate be on watch… a lot of issues might just be seen into light this week

PSM 09.10.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates

Masarap pumasok sa market today for range trading

Good vibes on syria war being less likely to happen

Markets will have rallies

Sell mo nga lang din agad kase

Zamboanga drama will hinder our rally depending on kung papaano maaksyonan ng government yan

That aside 2-3% upside for a day would be more likely for those na oversold masyado or is in cobsecutive losses in the past few days

Eei and ali for example XD

PSM 09.09.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates

Sept 9, 2013

Trend: Sideways
Phase: Consolidation
Recomendation: Range Trade or Ligthen on Rallies

Syrian War issues
September 16 Market Reindexing
Fed Tapering soon to be cleared out
pork barrel scam rising (Philippine Governance under question)

Market is still seen under consolidation and it is awaiting for fresh catalysts to recover after the many issues that happened in the dreaded ghost month which ended last week.

Even thou Ghost month has just ended, the market is still expected to remain volatile in the next few weeks as investors still waiting for further clues on when the US Federal Reserve would start unwinding its aggressive monetary stimulus. (#FEDTapering #QEexit)

The Rising tension in the Middle East (#Syrianwar) also poses a threat of another downward swing or momentum as it creates fear and tension on most investors as what would happen to prices of the commodities esp oil, if ever the inevitable happen

The Issue on Pork barrel scam on the other hand creates a direct impact for our market as investor confidence regarding our countries governance has really gone down.

Market reindexing for our very own PSEI will be on Sept 16, 2013
expect buying pressure on stocks to be included in the index (#LTG #GTCAP) and selling pressures on the stocks which will rotate out (#MER #BEL).

Market is still seen to be down and volatile so it is still recomended to do range trading or ligthen on rallies until a better base for support has shown itself

if you are starting to accumulate now, (#costaveraging) go for consumer stocks like #PGOLD #DNL #URC #RFM and avoid the banking sector

Banking sector is expected to suffer a lot next year as BASEL III Requirements and increase in interest rates are mostly due by the end of the year to around next year.

Trading gains which form bulk of Banking sector’s profit next year is also seen to be flat leading to expectations of lower income reports to be generate next year

Consumer and Property sector however are still seen to continue to run as Philippines’ fundamentals remains strong

Philippines is a very consumer economy and unlike their emerging market counter parts, OFW’s backs the this consumer driven economy up (#consumerisking)

Althou interest rate increase may seem to affect property sector, upside is still seen as lot of construction and PPP Projects are due and expected next year.

Just don’t forget to Range trade or Lighten up on rallies
Wave 4 is likely moving in its final phase

PSM 08.30.13

By: Erwin San Luis
FB: Philippine Stock market Update

August 30, 2013

Trend: sideways
Phase: technical rally
(Rally due to stocks being too much oversold for consecutive days
Below rsi 25)

-Monthend window dressing
-Ghost month to end on sept 3
-Bear market entry was not confirmed
Fed tampering
Syria issues
Ghost month

Bear market entry became invalid as psei rallied back to 6,000 level

To be considered under bear market

Our major index (psei) should be losing at least 20% from previous all time high for a period of at least 2 MONTHS

In our case just fell for a few days
Making the entry to the bear market invalid

On the other note
The technical rally seemed to be short & will soon face the challenge regarding FED tapering next month

Sept 3 also marks the end of ghost month that will enable the market to gain more mentum to push up

Athou rally is bound by technical issues of the stocks and becoz of window dressing

Market is still expected to be under pressure for the whole month of sept as it is still unclear as to what would the fed really stand for
And a lot of issues to be clarified under our government

Banking sector will also remain weak for the rest of the year until next year as there are a lot of issues that it will facing then

stay away from banks
Go consumer instead

You can use this technical rally to sell your position (stock position)
And then reposition it later when major issues are cleared

Thank you and regards