PSM 09.09.13

By: Erwin San Luis
Philippine Stock Market Updates

Sept 9, 2013

Trend: Sideways
Phase: Consolidation
Recomendation: Range Trade or Ligthen on Rallies

Syrian War issues
September 16 Market Reindexing
Fed Tapering soon to be cleared out
pork barrel scam rising (Philippine Governance under question)

Market is still seen under consolidation and it is awaiting for fresh catalysts to recover after the many issues that happened in the dreaded ghost month which ended last week.

Even thou Ghost month has just ended, the market is still expected to remain volatile in the next few weeks as investors still waiting for further clues on when the US Federal Reserve would start unwinding its aggressive monetary stimulus. (#FEDTapering #QEexit)

The Rising tension in the Middle East (#Syrianwar) also poses a threat of another downward swing or momentum as it creates fear and tension on most investors as what would happen to prices of the commodities esp oil, if ever the inevitable happen

The Issue on Pork barrel scam on the other hand creates a direct impact for our market as investor confidence regarding our countries governance has really gone down.

Market reindexing for our very own PSEI will be on Sept 16, 2013
expect buying pressure on stocks to be included in the index (#LTG #GTCAP) and selling pressures on the stocks which will rotate out (#MER #BEL).

Market is still seen to be down and volatile so it is still recomended to do range trading or ligthen on rallies until a better base for support has shown itself

if you are starting to accumulate now, (#costaveraging) go for consumer stocks like #PGOLD #DNL #URC #RFM and avoid the banking sector

Banking sector is expected to suffer a lot next year as BASEL III Requirements and increase in interest rates are mostly due by the end of the year to around next year.

Trading gains which form bulk of Banking sector’s profit next year is also seen to be flat leading to expectations of lower income reports to be generate next year

Consumer and Property sector however are still seen to continue to run as Philippines’ fundamentals remains strong

Philippines is a very consumer economy and unlike their emerging market counter parts, OFW’s backs the this consumer driven economy up (#consumerisking)

Althou interest rate increase may seem to affect property sector, upside is still seen as lot of construction and PPP Projects are due and expected next year.

Just don’t forget to Range trade or Lighten up on rallies
Wave 4 is likely moving in its final phase