PSM Update 05.31.13

May 31 2013

Trend: consolidation
Phase: correction

Modes:
1. Monthend window dressing
2. US Quantitative easing panic
3. New commer’s panic

Good morning

Psei together with other asian stocks dipped deep further the support zone yesterday

Breaking another support level
Which leads the market in a consolidating range as foreign investors took profits from the developing country to further increase their position in US
Para maavoid ang quantitative easing

Nagagawin kung hindi gaganda ang standing ng kanilang economy at market

So syempre mas priority nila ayun

Meanwhile sa ating psei naman

Yesterday was the biggest drop in the past 2 years…
Yun last time was september pa
In fear of recession

Pero don’t worry and dont panic
ok lang naman tau this time

Naoverwhelm lang talaga at na out shadowed ang good news

Which is our gdp growth was better than expected again

Actually un down kahapon gave us opportunity to buy and input new sets of fresh capital sa stocks naten ngaun as
Nagkaroon nanaman ng magandang base ang possible gains naten

Same parin naman valuation naten… actually mas gumanda pa… yun nga lang talagang need lang magout ng foreign investors to save their own kaya aun

Anyhow
Since 6900 nanaman ang psei…
ok ok na un trend line nya..
mas maganda ngang tingnan eh… actually kulang pa ng konti ahhahah

The sad thing nga lang is

Ung mga new investors na ngaun palang pumapasok… napapasubo XD aun loss nanaman daw sila ayaw na nila.sugal lang daw ang stocks.baket daw pag pumapasok sila parati talo!!!

Oh well expected naman na yan XD sana lang wag sila masyado magpanic ahahh malaking bagay sila para maachieve naten ang 7500!

Cosco price will be 10.50

Today trading halt ang
SMPH
SMDC
SMIC

Kasama pala ang HP sa trading halt [Highlands Prime] ayon sa isang sources sa SM…

sabay sabay tlga? eto na ba un? or tumatakas lang sila sa down trend sa closing? hahahaha

anyhow eto sabi

To be able to give way to
major announcements by SM which are reasonably expected to materially
affect the market activity and the price of its securities

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-4499_SMPH.pdf
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-4500_SMDC.pdf
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-4501_SM.pdf

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.30.13

May 30, 2013

Good Morning!

Cosco Capital Inc. (COSCO)
PUREGOLD Price Club (PGOLD)

Trading halt Disclosure

Due to transaction involving placing and
subscription of new common shares (Part of the backdoor listing for the holding company of the Co Family)

(Disclosure includes share placement of COSCO at 15/share)

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/memos/2013/LA__2013-0197.pdf

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-4433_COSCO.pdf

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-4434_PGOLD.pdf

Kumusta naman ang portfolio niyo sa ating very deep and very steep red sea?

Ngayon lang din ako nakakita ng -3% mahigit sa PSEi ah

Bwahahahahah  hangang saan na ang wiped out na gains?

Ok lang yan… 6900+ PSEi is just like retracing the stock about 3 months ago

So pag mga 2 months palang na wiped out sayo ayus din hahahhahah

Here is the most awaited blood bath

By the way pasalamat na rin kayo ganito kasi nag crecreate siya ng another upside para sa buong taon

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.29.13

March 29, 2013

Trend: consolidation with a spark of recovery or another uptrend
Phase: recovery

due to monthend window dressing ang release of economic data

Mode: monthend window dressing

Good morning

Psei finally shown some recovery from its consecutive losses due to the correction that was initiated by the china and us concerns
backed up by the seasonal lack of interesting development news that might entice investors

The recovery is expected until friday and afterwards the market will continue to move sideways with an upward momentum bias

Euro stocks is on the otherhand seen on a critical level of trend reversal… and if such thing happen…a boost in the concern in euro will generally push global markets (including the phillipines) up

If you are ipit on ur porfolio ryt now… remember that next month is halfyear window dressing

So be happy and have a great day!

Reminder:

on MAY 31, 2013, please be reminded of the changes in the MCSI philippine index whereas SMC will be removed and MPI will be added in… this will give both of them a quick jerk on that day.. where mpi to have a boosted up and smc to be dipping down.

small cap index will also have changes whereas
DNL, EEI, PEP, RFM, SMCP will be added

and

GTCAP, MEG, PGOLD, RLC, SECB will be removed
in which case any of them might be a candidate to be included in the PSE Index on later this year

 

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.24.13

May 24, 2013

Trend: Uptrend with another spark of correction
Phase: Consolidation

Good Morning

PSE retreated again yesterday after lunch due to US China Japan concerns…

Isang mabilis na pagbulusok papuntang blood bathing ang naganap at maraming hindi nakapag react

And since closing ito naganap yung iba… pagka uwi palang nila sa kanilang bahay nalaman ang balita, as a result magpapanic nadin sila

So today sila aaction which is a bit late…

So magchachain ang effect which in turn malaki ang chance na mag blood bath ulet ngayun

Cosider mo na din na friday ngayon which is weakness trading day for the week

and that 2nd week ang weakest for the month

Ayun patong patong

Pero ayos lang yan opportunity to buy yan for next weeks window dressing

Or so we thought… kasi pwede din naman na ang spark ng correction na ito ang mag start ng correction na hinihintay natin since April…

So matuloy kaya ang “Sell inMay and go away”

Anyhow may bawi parin naman ang market natin

Although nagsisimula ng lumabas ang concerns dahil sa over valued naman talaga yan

Yung forecast is 7500 fo rthe year… right now is ranging from 7200 to 7300 which is very near the target eh half year palang

Anyhow that aside the correction if matuloy will allow investors to buy more shares

Madami pa din naman under valued companies like dnl, smph, ad pgold

Malakilaki pa upside nila madami naman sila…
Although huwag mag rush bumili pag pababa ang market wait wait lang din kasi pwede pa siyang dumeretso pababa

Mas ok kung medyo nagbobottom up na bumili

Kahit hindi mo nabili sa pinaka ilalim ok nadin kasi nakabili ka parin ng mas mura

Thats it

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.22.13

May 22, 2013

Trend: Uptrend
Phase: Technical Rally
Mode: Net Foreign Buying due to SEC lifting the 40% foreign ownership cap

Good Morning

PSEI ended its losing streak yesterday and is seen to continue its technical rally as investors have repositioned their porfolios after the short technical correction due to reaching another all time high

SEC lifting the 40% foreign ownership cap also aided the markets rebound to be extended due to a lot Net foreign to be expected in the near term

that aside… PSEI is near its 7,500 target and is still bound for another correction

newcomers should be aware that their investments right now might be riding a bubble and more careful on what stock they should pick.
it should not be more about what is hot right now
but what companies they fundamentally believe in and the foresight of what companies would benefit for the upcomming years

There will also be a short term play due to the MSCI rebalancing
with MPI and SMC to be greatly affected

and some small cap indices like DNL, RFM and EEI
http://business.inquirer.net/122247/metro-pacific-joins-msci-philippines-index-replaces-smc

Thats it pancit
take care… ipon ipon lang pag may time
kase monthend window dressing na next week

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.20.13

May 20,2013

Trend: Uptrend
Phase: consolidation

Good Morning

Trade cautiously this week as psei is again having some corrective pressures

Losses may be seen this week which is a good chance to buy those stocks which will be affected by the Msci rebalancing at the end of the month

Next week is another end of the month window dressing week
So beef up your porfs at during the lows of the week

Caveat thou

As of now its good to range trade muna

-Ciao

Erwin San Luis

PSM Update 05.14.13

May 14, 2013

Trend: Uptrend in need of another correction
Phase: Uptrend and consolidation
One day after election, after a long weekend
Market resumes with high probability of gains, actually a jerky gains or instant boost which could test higher level of high today as it is seen that election yesterday were generally peaceful
Samahan mo pa ito ng recent credit rating upgrade last time, ehich in effect became a spark for other credit rating companies to review their current valuation on ph
Back to back yan with thise election kasi, after which maaayos na ng government ang mga kailangan to futher boost the economy
Pero tandaan there is a limit to how high can the market go up
Rise should happen over time not just in a few months
So be careful for the corrections
At any rate market is seen to continue its bullish movement for the next few months
Erwin San Luis